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The participants in the multi-party negotiations believe that their document ‘offers a truly historic opportunity for a new beginning’ and talk of a ‘fresh start’ on the basis of ‘partnership, equality and mutual respect’ within the six-county area, between North and south and between these islands. However, as we shall see, Ulster is very much an unequal junior ‘partner’ in these relationships as ministerial Cross-Border Institutions with Executive Powers (CroBIEPs) and the British-Irish Ministerial Council will wield all of the real power in this document.

The British and Irish governments have committed themselves to sign a new Northern Ireland with regard to its status. However, the ‘choices’ open are just two - a conditional version of the Union with Great Britain or a sovereign united Ireland . There is no mention of another option- an independent sovereign Ulster . The purported recognition of the right of ‘the people of the island of the island of Ireland alone, by the agreement of the two parts’ to exercise self-determination on the basis of free consent subject to the agreement and consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland ’ is a masterpiece of ambiguity.

It seems that there is already a majority of people on ‘the island of Ireland' for a united Irish state. Their wish to incorporate the six counties into their territory will be triggered once there is even a 50% + 1 vote in favour of such a change. This makes Northern Ireland ’s status as part of the UK conditional which is quite a difference from all the other parts. The acknowledgement that it would be wrong to make any change in Northern Ireland ’s status without the consent of a majority seems grand as far as it goes but in fact a simple majority is all that will be needed to effect such a transfer of sovereignty. We note, however, that no such consent is needed for all sorts of ‘harmonising’ changes short of a full transfer of sovereignty to the Leinster House regime.

Northern Ireland ’s status as part of the United Kingdom is formally put on a conditional basis. This legislation, if passed, would provide for regular, seven-yearly polls to determine whether or not Northern Ireland should remain in the UK or join the Republic. No provision is made for a poll on any other option, e.g. repartition or independence. The repeal of the Government of Ireland Act 1920 is a permanent move, whereas the proposed changes to the Irish Constitution will only come into effect if the full agreement is implemented to the satisfaction of the Oireachtas - Leinster House.

The Ulster Independence Movement called for the repeal of the Government of Ireland Act in 1996. We saw this in the context of agreed negotiated independence for Ulster and the parallel removal of Éire ’s aggressive constitutional claim on the six counties. In effect, the Ulster Independence Movement called both states to withdraw their claims to sovereignty over our homeland. This is not the effect of the Mitchell Agreement. Instead, we are to remain in a constitutional limbo until our eventual formal expulsion from the UK into a new All-Ireland state.

The schedule which outlines the procedure for holding regular polls on the future status of Northern Ireland allows the Secretary of State to direct the holding of a poll on any given date if it appears likely that a majority of voters ‘would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom' and ‘form part of a united Ireland’. It is not clear how this ‘appears likely’. Again, a majority could in theory wish to opt for an independent Ulster but the Secretary of State could ignore their wishes.

Article 29 of the Constitution deals with the Irish state’s international relations and membership of the United Nations, the EEC and the European Union etc. Paragraph 7:2 states that any institution established by the Agreement may exercise its powers and functions ‘irrespective of all or any part of the island of Ireland.’ This suggests that some of the present functions of the Oireachtas will be taken over by such bodies. This could become a framework for an all-island parliament to which the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Oireachtas would be subordinate.

The proposal to amend Articles 2 and 3 of the Irish Constitution is long overdue and, on the face of it, most welcome. It is regrettable that this change is conditional on the establishment of all the institutions in the Agreement. It should be noted, however, that the existence of these articles prevented any formal joint exercise of authority or executive powers as these conflicted with the ‘constitutional imperative’ of Leinster House to govern all 32 counties.

The amended version of Article 2 entitles everyone born on the ‘island of Ireland’ to be part of the ‘Irish nation’. This is fair enough and of itself is no longer a claim on the territory of the six counties. It also recognises the special affinity of the Irish nation with its diaspora. It is entirely a matter for the Leinster House government to identify with Irish ethnic minority groups in Ulster and overseas and is fairly unobjectionable.

The amended Article 3 is much more interesting and subtly ambiguous. In it, the Ulster-Scots and Ulster-British are subsumed as ‘people who share the territory of the island of Ireland , in all the diversity of their identities and traditions’ - in effect different kinds of Irish people. The recognition that a united Irish State should only come about with the consent of a majority of the people in both jurisdictions is positive as is the admission that two jurisdictions presently exist.

However, the proposed new Article 3:2 dealing with CroBIEPs allows such institutions to exercise powers and functions ‘in respect of all or any part of the island'. Before this amendment, the Oireachtas claimed jurisdiction over the whole island but only made laws for the 26 counties ‘pending the reintegration of the national territory.’ Now the Oireachtas will continue to be responsible for making laws in the 26 counties (until Irish unity comes about) but will have an input into those cross-border bodies which will exercise power and functions in both states.

Another interesting change to Article 29 is the addition of Section 8 which now permits the Irish State to ‘exercise extra-territorial jurisdiction’ presumably in Northern Ireland, through the cross-border bodies set out in this Agreement.

This strand of the Agreement provides for a democratically-elected Assembly

This Assembly is more like a colonial sub-assembly than a normal elected body where the majority party or coalition of parties forms a government. So-called ‘safeguards’ will be built in to any legislation to ensure that all sections of the community can participate’ and that ‘key decisions’ are taken on a ‘cross-community basis’.

A lot of questions here are left in the air. Apart from the election of the Chair of the Assembly, the First and Deputy First Minister, there is no definition of ‘key decisions’. At least 40% of the members of unionist and Irish nationalist designations present and voting will be needed to swing any vote, or a majority of the members of each ‘designation’. This is a recipe for paralysis in government. In addition, the requirement to register a ‘designation of identity’ at the first meeting of the Assembly is the formal institutionalisation of sectarianism.

We note that there is no place for an opposition in this system. All departmental chairs and ministerial posts will be allocated to the elected parties on the basis of their party strengths under the d’Hondt system. This opens up the likelihood of Sinn Féin ministers if that party decides to end its former abstentionist stance. Once such an appointment is made, it cannot be overturned except on the ‘cross-community basis’ already outlined above.

The proposed ‘Council of the Isles’- the British-Irish Council - appears to have no real functions. Apart from six-monthly meetings to discuss matters of common interest, any member can opt not to participate in anything the Council agrees. This is a luxury denied to the Northern Ireland Assembly in Strand Two. The BIC appears to be a bone thrown to the unionists to keep them happy.

The list of rights and liberties listed in the Agreement are largely unobjectionable. Freedom of thought, religious expression and the right to seek peaceful constitutional change and to be free from sectarian harassment are very important to all citizens as also ought to be the right to free association. The Ulster Independence Movement is concerned about the intention to make public authorities obliged by law to ‘promote equality of opportunity’ in various fields. This looks likely to bring in American-style quotas, ‘set-asides’ and the like. This has poisoned labour relations in America

This is not scare-mongering. The British government is to bring in a new super-quango - the Equality Commission - to replace the present Fair Employment and Equal Opportunities commissions, the Disability Council and the recently formed Commission for Racial Equality. One issue already due for ‘rapid progress is ‘a new more focused Targeting Social Needs initiative and a range of measures aimed at combating unemployment and progressively eliminating the differential in unemployment rates between the two communities'.   How can this be achieved except through formal quotas and set-aside

The Ulster Independence Movement welcomes any regional development

We agree that the police ought to be professional, effective, fair and impartial and free from partisan political control. For most law and order issues, this is true of the RUC. However, no police force is popular with lawbreakers. The Royal Ulster Constabulary is no exception. Unlike police officers in other parts of the world, RUC constables have been active targets for terrorist attacks and the RUC has been subjected to a massive international propaganda onslaught of vilification over the past three decades. It seems to us that the proposed ‘independent commission’ on policing is at best likely to undermine the role of the RUC. The most likely option is to abolish the RUC altogether. We wonder if the new police force will be ‘more representative in terms of the make-up of the community as a whole’ by recruiting former IRA volunteers as constables.